Thank You Rahul

It was 15th January of 1999 and we were celebrating ‘Vasi-Uttarayan’ at Chintan’s Nani’s place.  India had just finished a three-test series against New Zealand and Rahul Dravid, was the best batsman for India. He had scored two wonderful centuries at Hamilton in the last test and saved the test for India. Something he repeated on numerous occasions for the next 13 years. Salil, my friend and an underrated cricket talent himself was telling me, “Rahul Dravid is the find of the tour” but soon we started talking about Sourav Ganguly’s flamboyant century in the same Hamilton test. That was the summary of Dravid’s career till 2001. He was the most reliable and the most consistent batsman of the side but was always overshadowed by Tendulkar’s legendary status and by Ganguly’s glamour.

Rahul Dravid is the second highest run scorer in the test history. According to many he is the second best batsman of the modern era after Sachin Tendulkar, and that has been his fate always, or definitely was so for the first half of his career. He was always the second best. Even when he was the best, he was the second best. It started with his debut. He played a gem of an innings at Lords and missed a century by five runs and followed it with a flawless eighty at Old Trafford. But another Test Debutant Sourav Ganguly scored two centuries in the same consecutive tests and Rahul was the second best. Dravid was a master of defence. He valued his wicket. Unfortunately that led to him being tagged, quite unjustifiably, as slow or a ‘test’ batsman. Had Sourav Ganguly not insisted on him using as Wicket Keeper, he might even have lost his place in the one-day squad.

But Rahul Dravid never complained. He symbolized grit and determination. He just hung on. He kept playing beautiful match saving silent knocks in every condition. If there was one game which served as tipping point that made converted India from a decent side to a champion side it was Kolkata test, 2001. After following on India were still trailng by 44 runs and had already lost 4 wickets. And Rahul Dravid went out to bat at no.6. He had to vacate his favourite no.3 position for in-form batsman VVS Laxman. Dravid joined Laxman in the middle and what followed is history. Dravid made an impeccable 180. Once again he was overshadowed by 281 by VVS Laxman – One of the greatest innings in the history of the game. After this series Dravid established himself as the most reliable batsman of the squad and the year 2003/04 placed him among the greatest batsmen of Indian cricket. In the successful tours to Australia and Pakistan (where he even captained the side in two tests) Dravid played a big role. In fact his innings of 233 at Adelaide not only proved to be match winning but sowed seeds of confidence and courage that later Indian sides showed overseas.

He had all the qualities to be a great leader. He was well respected, he was a fantastic performer and he had a deep understanding of the game. Unfortunately his tenure as captain coincided with one of the controversial coaches that India had had, Greg Chappel. But even during such a tumultuous period he didn’t allow his batting to suffer. In fact his two half centuries at Sabina Park Kingston not only got India a victory but inspired Brian Lara to remark that it was the finest piece of test batting that he had seen.

Rahul Dravid has been so consistent over years that it’s difficult to remember a lean patch of his. His brilliance lies in the fact that he always looked comfortable while batting. He succeeded where everybody else failed. His posture and stance with eyes oozing determination and the left elbow with an outward kink were a symbol of graft. His technique was so sound that even when he faced the first delivery of the innings it looked as if he had been there for hours. In the age of shortening attention spans and increasing influence of T20 cricket, he protected value of grit and technique.

Long back Kapil Dev used to present a series called ‘Different Strokes’ where he interviewed a young Rahul Dravid. By the end of the interview Kapil Dev asked him, “You were a good student in school. You were the best in cricket. You were a nice kid at home. How is it possible? How can anyone be perfect in everything?” Rahul Dravid had just smiled in response. But that’s what Rahul Dravid has been for all of us all these years. A great batsman, a gentleman cricketer, a fantastic team player and a humble individual. We may get better batsmen than him in future, but will there be another gentleman like him?

Thank you Rahul. Thanks a lot!

World Cup Cricket : Does experience of a previous Semi-final improve a team’s chances of winning in a semi-final?

Does experience of playing in a world cup semi-final really make a difference in a world cup semi-final? The intuitive answer has to be yes. However, I just thought of playing with some small numbers to see if i could extract some deeper insight about this hypothesis. This post is just a summary of that nonsensical tabulating exercise.

I tried to look at two dimensions of experience of having played in a semi-final. The first dimension is how many semi-finals has the country already played. The logic being, more a team plays in games like semi-final more it’s equipped to play and win such games. Another dimension is the gap between two semi-finals. Here the underlying argument is that if a team plays a semi-final in a consecutive world cup it is mentally more prepared and equipped to win the semi-final.

Given that there have been only nine world cups so far and hence only 18 world cup semi-finals no sophisticated statistical analysis was feasible. However I just did a simple tabulation. I classified winners and losers as per the experience (number of semi-finals played) and continuity (number of years between two semi-finals).

The numbers in brackets in the winners' table indicate teams that went on to win the World Cup.

 

Some of the conclusions of the analysis are really interesting.

This time we have four semi-finalists. India is playing their fifth semi-final and thus joins the club of teams having played 5 or more semi-finals, which comprises Australia, England, New Zealand and Pakistan. Sri Lanka plays their fourth semi-final and interestingly their third consecutive semi-final. On the other hand New Zealand and Pakistan both are playing their sixth semi-final (the only other nation to have played six times in a world cup semi-final is Australia). Pakistan are playing their semi-final after a gap of 12 years. This is only the fourth such instance. When Australia played against Pakistan in semi-final at Lahore (having played their first semi-final in 1975) , it was for the first time that a team was playing a semi-final after a gap of 12 years. Next it was New Zealand in 1992 and then it was West Indies in 1996. Except Australia both the other teams playing in a semi-final after a gap of 12 years or more, lost the semi-finals. Now let’s see what picture the data juggling shows us.

Apparently, number of semi-finals played prior to the current one doesn’t have much of an impact. One can say that a team playing it’s 4th, 5th or 6th semi-final has a greater chance to win than a debutant. (Interestingly except the first world cup, only twice a semi-final has been won by a country that was playing a semi-final for the first time. India in 1983 and Sri Lanka in 1996. Both went on to win the cup.) Neither the numbers are that strong nor they are quite relevant for making any prediction in this world cup.

What is interesting though is the impact of playing consecutive world cups. Interestingly in semi-finals there has been 15 such instances where a team was playing a semi-final in consecutive world cups, that is the team was in the semi-finals within a span of just 4 years. Let’s call such a team a ‘Continuing’ team. Out of 15 such instances, 10 times the ‘Continuing’ team has won. In fact a when a ‘Continuing’ team plays against a ‘Returning’ team that is returning to the Semi-finals after having missed it for a world cup or two, the ‘Continuing’ team is expected to win. The only exception to this rule has been the semi-final between Australia and Pakistan in 1987, where Australia was playing after 12 years and against Pakistan was a ‘Continuing’ team having played a semi-final in the previous world cup against West Indies. Interestingly out of 9 world cups, 5 times the winner was a team that had played semi-final in the previous occasion. Four times when it didn’t happen so was in 1975 (obviously the first world cup), in 1983 (when India reached semi-finals for the first time and went on to win), in 1987 (Australia playing a semi-final for the first time since the inaugural tournament), and in 1995/96 (Sri Lanka).

Let’s see if any other team has been in a similar situation as the semi-finalists of this World Cup and what has been the result.

  • India : India is playing its 5th semi-final and that too after a gap of 8 years. Two teams have been in a similar situation before. New Zealand in the previous world cup – and they lost in the semi and Pakistan in 1999 (they won the semi-final against New Zealand with absolute dominance and went on to lose in the final to Australia).

  • Pakistan: Pakistan is playing it’s 6th world cup semi-final after a gap of 12 years. No other team has been precisely in the same situation. However Australia has experienced both these dimensions in two different world cups. In 1987 Australia was playing after a gap of 12 years and went on to win the world cup. While Australia again, played its 6th semi-final in the previous world cup (but after a gap of 4 years only) and once again they won the world cup.

  • Sri Lanka : After Australia, Sri Lanka could be the most successful world cup campaigner in last four world cups. In fact, Sri Lanka are playing their third consecutive world cup semi-final.

  • New Zealand : New Zealand are playing their 6th world cup semi-final and are playing after a gap of four years. In a similar situation like Australia in the previous world cup. Australia was the eventual champion.

However there are a few interesting facts that every team can rely upon for moral support.

  1. For Pakistan & New Zealand supporters : Except England in 1979, no team has ever managed to win a semi-final on the home soil. (England in 1975, 1983; India in 1987; Pakistan in 1987; New Zealand in 1992)
  2. For Sri Lanka supporters: New Zealand has never won  a World Cup semi-final.
  3. For Indian supporters : India has never lost to Pakistan in a world cup game.